Following is an interesting excerpt from the L.A. Times on Chris Ferguson, who won the World Series of Poker championship last spring. He has a doctorate in computer science/artificial intelligence from UCLA, and calculates all his poker moves mathematically. Not surprisingly, the story says he swing trades at a Westwood stock-trading firm.
Tough Test of Poker Theories
For Ferguson, the fourth day of the Binion's Horseshoe championship last year was a rigorous test of whether his poker theories would hold up under extreme conditions. Everyone but Cloutier and Ferguson had been knocked out. The two men seemed evenly matched, as control of the chips shifted between them.
Then Ferguson was dealt an ace and a nine. Cloutier bet $175,000, and Ferguson raised him $425,000. Cloutier responded by going "all in" with the rest of his chips, raising him $1.7 million.
Should Ferguson call Cloutier's bet, or should he fold? If Ferguson lost the hand, Cloutier would have a 10-to-1 lead. But if he won the hand, he would clinch the tournament.
Cloutier looked on placidly. Like other top players, he's a master at controlling his emotions during a game and is able to outlast other competitors who may crack under the pressure of a high-stakes tournament. His expertise has earned him millions on the poker tournament circuit. A San Francisco Bay Area native who lives in Richardson, Texas, when he's not on the road, he's known as an instinctive player with decades of experience who can expertly "read" his opponents to determine the cards they're holding. He treats poker as a job.
Ferguson, a soft-spoken poker theoretician nicknamed "Jesus" for his appearance, considered his odds. His gentle manner and polite reserve belie an aggressive style of play. Ferguson approaches poker almost as an academic pursuit and says the gambling aspect of the game holds little appeal for him. Instead, each of his poker moves is highly calculated. Literally.
The game theory that guides his decision-making hand by hand is a type of mathematical analysis for selecting the best available strategy in a game or real-world scenario. It can be used to minimize one's maximum losses or maximize one's minimum winnings. First postulated in a 1944 book, "The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior," by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, it is practiced by military, business and economic strategists.
In Ferguson's realm, it suggests, for example, that you need to call a bet--match the money put into the pot by another player to keep playing the hand--often enough so that your opponent can't run over you by bluffing all the time. But you don't want to call so much that your opponent can make money by only betting when he has a strong hand.
"Game theory says that you have to randomize your plays in such a way that your opponent can't figure out what you have and can't exploit you," said author David Sklansky, who touches on the subject in "The Theory of Poker," an influential poker book that advises players how to think about the game.
Ferguson also draws on a type of mathematics called Bayesian statistics, in which a formula is used to help determine what cards other players might be holding after each new card is dealt and after every round of betting.
He routinely calculates the expectations of success for every card and betting combination he might encounter. But not at the card table. Like most mathematically inclined players, he works out his strategies away from the card room.
"I sit at home and model the game and decide what I'd do in a given situation," Ferguson said. "The game I'm analyzing is not even poker, but simple games that isolate the concept I'm most interested in. For example, on the last betting round, what hands should I bet and what hands should I bluff and call with?
"I might make the same moves as other players, but for different reasons. I try and play a game where even if my opponents know how I'm playing, they can't take advantage of me."
Ferguson knew that his ace-nine hand was only borderline from a mathematical standpoint. But he decided the amount he had already invested in the pot made it worth the risk of calling Cloutier's bet.
"I thought there was a very small chance that I had the best hand. And if I had the best hand, I was giving up a lot more by folding," Ferguson said. So, removing his hat and mirrored glasses, he paused for a long moment and then went all in, bringing the pot to $4.6 million.
Full Story:
latimes.com |
