Hi CB, 20-30 books would take me about 5-8 years to work through. I would certainly be interested in your conclusions regarding the Big One in 1929.
I have, so far, taken the lazier approach and used the following explanation ...
<<The world depends on one great big untested construct of systems, sub-systems, components, sub-components, all linked, all functioning, each designed for its own little piece of the universe, for its own era, with its designed in but not transparent tolerances. This is what we are all depending on. Call it Space Ship Wall Street, and get on for a ride.
...
the world is connected, alive, complicated, unpredictable, and always on the verge of undiscovered disasters. We are at a critical juncture now, where we must make a judgment on risk vs. reward, based on all that we have learned, starting with the physical laws, mathematical constructs, probabilities, thermodynamics, random motion, and psychology.>>
first note here ...
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and of course, the crowds back then, as now, worked the machine beyond its aggregate tolerance, without understanding that (virtual or real) machines can fail. Just as a $6 faulty O-ring can cause a space shuttle to blow up, the financial system is only as strong as its weakest link. Each failure triggers the next failure, until the whole system is kaput. As DJ has just noted and I had readily admitted in the past, we lack imagination.
What I lack in imagination, I compensate with suspicion and healthy fear.
The system we got now simply has too many links, and weak ones at that.
This explanation can be used to understand Japan as well.
Chugs, Jay |
