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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Eric L who wrote (42728)5/17/2001 11:26:33 AM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Eric L: Re: Nextel: Points well taken. The adoption of CDMA 2000 by Nextel is not a slam dunk.

Having watched the way Qualcomm executes over time, I would suggest that engineer may be close to the mark that the "precondition" will be satisfied. But no certainty yet.

Re: CDMA 2000 itself worldwide:

What I see is a change in the overall situation with regard to CDMA 2000 and its upgrade paths and iterations.

The progress continues in Korea, in Japan and in the US toward 1x and then onward. All in current spectrum.

India is the sleeper with its "poor man's phone" using CDMA WLL. This is a CDMA growth area which is not yet taken into account for projections.

And in Latin America there is an open situation on TDMA moves. But what is clear is that TDMA is in itself a dead end.

And BREW is a major new plus for CDMA 2000. Still too soon to evalutate well but the ability of application developers to use this and the system being put in place this year would seem to give CDMA 2000 and Qualcomm itself some major advantage.

Then on the other hand, GPRS seems to be having growing pains, EDGE is still questionable, and even UMTS seems to be having its own pains to the extent that its launch seems to be further away as news breaks and less and less the sure path to dominance in 3G it once was assumed to be. UMTS may well be a series of "islands" in this decade.

Next year will be crucial IMO as all these play out, with confirmation of trends in 2003.

In the meantime, I am more comfortable with Qualcomm's overall position and future than ever before.

Best.

Cha2
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