Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 97.58

-8.0%

11:10 AM EST

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To: Knight who wrote (73111)	5/17/2001 12:01:11 PM
From: pheilman_	of 93625

Knight, great to see you lay out your two major assumptions: 1) RDRAM will eventually win out over DDR because it has superior characteristics which will become more apparent (and, hence, compelling) as CPU speeds increase. 2) RMBS has patents that allow them to get a royalty on all RDRAM sold. I would like to address them out of order: 2) No question, Rambus has patents on RDRAM, these patents have not been questioned and clearly give them rights to all RDRAM sold. 1) RDRAM will become more useful as CPU speed increases. No, RDRAM will become even worse as CPU speed increases. There are several aspects to memory performance. RDRAM gives up a few ticks in latency to DDR. This is a performance hit that gets worse as CPU speed increases. RDRAM has a bandwidth lead over DDR. This is of use for streaming applications. DDR speed is increasing rapidly. RDRAM has a large and growing cost disadvantage over other forms of memory. It is best to think of main memory as just a cache for the contents of the disk. So, a large main memory is better as more of the disk can be cached. For a given cost, right now, you could purchase 2.5 X as much DDR memory or 4 X times as much SDRAM memory. Admittedly the advantages of a cache start to level off as the size increases, but the slope of line is always positive. All main memory is changing in the future. Servers will continue to have banks of non-RDRAM memory. Which is a significant part of the whole memory market, despite the low number of servers vs. non-servers sold, simply because of the vast amount of memory installed in each server (as a disk cache). Desktop machines have had a shrinking number of chips of memory for years. I think that this memory will eventually become embedded to get better performance-meaning main memory market kind of goes away.

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