NV:
In a translated article from China.com (3/5/2001, I could probably find the link if you want it), China Unicom set forth their rationale for developing a CDMA 95A network.
First, their near term (next 2-3 years) requirement is to make voice service more widely available, and they're willing to wait to see how 3G deployments work out elsewhere before committing to a standard.
Second, in their available 80 MHz of spectrum, at 1,000,000 users/MHz on their present GSM network, they could accommodate 80 million users. Since CDMA makes more efficient use of spectrum, allocating 20 MHz to CDMA accommodates 80 million users, while the remaining 60 MHz, if devoted to the GSM network, could accommodate 60 million users, for a total of 140 million. Allocating 40 MHz to the GSM network gives 40 million user capacity, the other 40 MHz to CDMA would accommodate 160 million users, for a total of 200 million.
Unicom's announced goals are to have 100 million users by 2005, and 200 million users by 2010. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but my recollection is that China currently has around 75 million users, and Unicom has around 17 million of those, almost all presently on their GSM network.
Given their present spectrum and their expansion plans, which network expansion, GSM or CDMA, are they going to push hardest, and which is going to wind up carrying the majority of their voice traffic? Factor in the ease and low cost of adding a 1x overlay to CDMA 95a for up to 144 Kbps data rates, and the fact that QCOM has spent a lot of time and effort into helping domestic Chinese manufacturers become proficient in CDMA technology, and this entire Chinese deployment of CDMA, while proceeding at a snail's pace compared to what QCOM shareholders would like, has been as inevitable as the daily sunrise and sunset.
As for paying royalties to QCOM, you have to remember that the Chinese have a longer term goal of being a major manufacturer and exporter of CDMA gear and handsets (a la Korea), the overseas earnings from which will far outweigh the royalties they'll pay to QCOM.
David T. |
