>>the option premium writers have had to be loving life<<
Couldn't agree more. LOL That is why I ditched today. Rather than wait for this to decide which way it wants to go, I will latch on as it goes through, if I am around.
Paul - I don't chart the NASDAQ as much as the NDX. I show some more room on the upside before we hit the downtrend line on the NDX ( semi log). I have the line around 2050 NDX right now. marketswing.com On the NASDAQ, I have been playing the Fib lines so far. We reversed down off of the 25% ( which I really don't count as a fib but my "auto tool" does. -g-) marketswing.com If we break through that, then the 38% does'nt come into play until around 2600. AllansAllias is counting out a potential E-wave read that has us potentially starting a 3 wave up soon and has that area targeted as well. He has been on a hot streak lately.
Tag, your it. I will be gone most of next week myself and it will feel weird not being able to access my charts or read the boards. I probably won't trade on the road so I am sure something huge will happen then. <NG>
I was un-impressed with the news tonight but futures don't seem to care as usual. ADI guided down 10%, DELL missed revenues and then tried to glorify they had one tenth the inventory of other PC companies. Duh!, I thought you had zero inventory! That is what you claimed all those years with your just in time plan? JNPR shows things aren't clearing up soon etc. GAP earnings down half etc. FA says this is still ugly.
We were having a discussion on our board about FA vs timing and this was what I had to say about previous times versus now..............
.......Good Points. I am still holding to the over all view that this is still just a wave 4 counter trend rally and that this wasn't the bottom. Until I see NDX 2200 taken out, it is very easy for me to believe this. When Don and I spoke, we actually figured out we could go as high as 3K I think before it is a longer term deal.
History has shown that bear counter trend rallies are always huge, look great and fool almost everyone. Now notice also that I am not short this rally either. I am trying to scalp what I can on this but since it could possibly be getting late in the move, I am being very cautious. ( I am short MMM but I have a cycle turn due now)
As for if the FA backed up the other bottoms, Yes actually. In the Asian contagion and the LTCM fiasco and even further back in the Savings and loan crisis, the rate cuts helped because it either wasn't a US problem thus it was throwing fuel on an already healthy fire, or it was aimed at the sector that had the problem in the Savings and Loan case. This is not those situations. We have unemployment moving up although I actually view that as a plus if we stay below 5%, we have a tech glut and customers that are in so much debt, it will take years before they can afford to add more debt to build out.
While there have been some, there are very few "V" bottom bear endings. Usually the double bottom comes 6-9 weeks apart but some take months. So far there are still plenty of warnings and downward guidance being given. How much can people buy on faith and how much are they going to keep paying for lower and lower earnings. Even if things do turn around here, there is not going to be the kind of growth we saw over the last few years again in tech land. GM and Ford have better odds of high growth than most tech. At least the low interest rates might spur people into buying a new car. Joe six pack isn't in any hurry to go out and buy a web server and state of the art optical router though. -gggggggggg-
I am actually bullish on the NYSE, just not on tech and I have signals telling me not to go into the NYSE type stuff short term. I have to follow those signals. We still haven't gone over short term resistance in the NDX and so I am playing it right up to that line but quick to bail when it gets weak. Today it was dropping a lot faster and easier than it was going up. To me that is a bad sign. I'll know more when I get the charts done late tonight though. I thought I saw a intra day fork on the NDX and pointed to about 50 more down then a bounce but it was tough to call and too late in the day to try and play it. They always seem to ramp it the last half hour so I wasn't going to play it. A look at the 60 minute also looks like we are near a top time wise. Heinz has a turn on the 23rd but you could be right and we might keep going up. Allan thinks we may be about to do a doozy 3rd wave up that will over shoot to the upside around 2600 NASDAQ. That would sure fool a lot of people and gets shorts scrambling. .........
Our indicator is signalling major danger in the DOW and NYSE right now although it shows the techs could run more. Of course this runs exact opposite to my FA view.where I see the non techs as a potential better play longer term. What a fun year and a half, or two this has been. -gggg- If this is a major turn back down however for a 5th wave, the signal can be as much as a few weeks early. On of the bad things about this indicator on Major turn predictions... it is often way early and gives plenty of lead time to get positioned. TA vs FA hmmmmmm
Good Luck,
Lee |
