The technology would promise a data transmission speed of up to 20 Mbps, a speed at which services comparable to those on a standard PC can be provided.
Based on where we are now and how fast we seem to be getting to real deployment of the speeds of which 3G is supposed to be capable, one has to wonder how far off this would-like-to-be-a standard is from actual deployment. Long enough I would think for 3G to have a good run.
I also wonder a bit at what it is that one would use it for. Even with a full PC, once one gets up into the mid-hundred Kb/s range, the limiting factor in interacting with most of the internet is often the internet itself, not the local loop. The time differential to transfer most screen level information, i.e., pulling up a page, becomes at best marginally different and very susceptible to general traffic. On multi-MB downloads one notices a difference, certainly, but what exactly is one going to do with a multi-MB download to a phone?
Oh, I suppose that this is like most things in the computer biz in that we will figure out ways to use or waste all that bandwidth if it becomes available, but I have to be a little skeptical about how soon compelling applications will be driving the massive infrastructure revision that will be required.
I was talking with a friend last night about alternatives for his improving bandwidth in his internet connection. One of the themes in that exchange which I find myself noticing a lot lately is that the hot bed is really the mid-range. We have widespread and very inexpensive solutions for the low end, i.e., 50Kb/s phone. And, we have a number of good solid, predictable solutions at the high end, starting with T1. The tricky part is the place in between where either the power user individual or the small business needs more than the 50Kb/s, but can't justify the costs of a T1. If one can live with substantial asymmetry, there are some reasonably low cost solutions, but if one requires reasonable upload speed, fixed IP addresses, and such there are solutions, e.g., DSL, but ones that are having difficulty in the market. 3G wireless might provide an attractive new offering in this space since it wouldn't require any per site infrastructure and the infrastructure it does require is multi-use, but is there really a large market for wireless competition to T1 and T3? |
