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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (3859)	5/18/2001 2:38:14 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 33421

Treasury announced a <b<record smashing $189.8 bln surplus in April. Key Factors Topped last April's record surplus by $30.3 bln. April tax receipts rose 12.4% and reflect the roaring economy of 2000. 4.7% rise in outlays would be even larger if early April payments hadn't gone out in March. Leaves $165 bln FYTD surplus, $41 bln stronger than over the same period in FY2000. Fiscal year 2001 depends partly on retroactivity of Bush's tax plan and the severity of economic downturn. Official estimates for FY01 surplus at $281 bln, April at $278 bln over the last 12 months. Big Picture FY2000 ended with a record-smashing surplus of $237 bln. A larger surplus but reduced progress is expected for FY2001. Receipts depend on economic growth and any retroactivity to the intended tax cuts. Despite the outlook for larger surpluses as far as the forecasts extend we expect generous fiscal policy and the sharp economic slowing to provide bumps. Nevertheless, to date the progress has been astounding given that just five years ago the net fiscal flow had the opposite sign and deficits expected throughout the 10 year outlook. Category Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Receipts $331.8B $130.1B $110.5 $219.2 200.5 Outlays $142.0B $180.7B $158.6 $142.8 167.8 Deficit (-)/Surplus $189.8B -$50.7 -$48.2 76.4 32.7 Deficit (-)/Surplus Fiscal YTD $165.0B -$24.8 $25.9 74.0 -2.3

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