Max, regarding the ME - When they start putting the stuff on page 1 in your newspaper, it may impact the market. As long as it doesn't impact the price of gas today, most people in the US won't care.
Sharon will escalate things as long as the US stands idly by and does nothing. Furthermore, there is no shortage of Palestinians who want to be martyrs for their cause. I don't see war, but I do see an escalation of tensions.
I think if Sharon escalates things and the bombings escalate, Sharon's approval ratings might drop, leaving him politically vulnerable. If Israeli soldiers start getting killed, it will hurt him politically. If it is innocent civilians, the people tend to blame the enemy. I think Sharon is smart enough to know all of this.
I don't mention Arafat because I really don't beleive he has control over Hamas, and they are directing a lot of the action, IMO.
Right now, I don't even know if J6P knows what's going on there. |
