From: Zeev Hed Friday, May 18, 2001 6:53 PM
Rashomon, could very well be (both?), I'll wait for developments next week and to see if we take out 2250 or not. There are a lot of cross current here and they can stay this way for some time. Right now, I'll stay in my "bullish mode" until some of the dychotomies are resolved.
On the positive side we have:
NYSE had two consecutive 1000 plus tic (on top of two singular earlier occurrences this year)
MZM is at more than 30% above last year levels (huge amount of liquidity itching to find a home)
The A/D line in the NYSE has crossed back above levels from 1999.
The feds have reduced rates by 2% in the last four actions.
We are not seeing signs of a recession hitting us in the next quarter or two. (that is not a fact, just a presumption)
The Naz has not suffered a 10% retracement since the lows of 1628 or so.
Since the April 19th or so "highs", retracements lows have been consecutively higher.
The Dow has made a new 8 months new high.
On the negative side:
Overcapacity is still plaguing industry
Asia, particularly Japan is still in "deep S$%^t"
Sentiment indicators stink (too many bulls)
The VIX and the VXN are very low.
The equity P/C ratio is still under .60 (today at .40!!!)
The feds, at best can cut only another 1% from the overnight rates (presumption, not a fact)
Hidden erumpent inflation ready to surface (more conjecture than known fact)
There are many more cross currents here, and thus, while bullish, I keep my "zipper" (on my bull suit) at the "ready". Failure to hold 2095 on the Naz would be a warning signal for me and failure to close above 2052 will be an "abandon ship" call. But, until the fat lady sings, I am still waiting for 2250 to be conquered and 2388 to be reached, before I use the zipper.
Zeev
Ö¿Ö |
