Fleck today<No Fever Like Gold Fever Away from stocks, the yen was weaker, as was the euro. Fixed income was slightly firmer. Oil was up a dollar to $29.93, threatening the psychological $30 level once again. The real show was in the precious metals. As we have been discussing for some time, the character of the gold market appears to have changed. Today that market erupted as gold started to go through the magic number of $275. It's deemed magical because that's where trend lines, resistance, and other such things of technical significance are located. About the next print I saw after it traded over $275 was $276.50. From there, the fireworks began. Ultimately, gold was up about $14.00 on the day and closed on the high tick. I have no idea where the next five dollars is going to be, up or down, but I believe that gold has finally -- at long last -- entered a new bull market. Here is what I believe to be the catalyst: Lots of people now understand that our central bank cares nothing about anything except for preserving the wealth effect of pieces of paper, thereby guaranteeing a diminished value for all pieces of paper down the road, not the least of which is the dollar. Were every other currency on the planet not equally weak, the dollar might actually go down against something besides the price of gold. If in fact this analysis is correct and other people come to the same conclusion, ultimately the price of gold will attain a heretofore-unimaginable level. But that's getting a few steps ahead Stay tuned.>> i am not a gold fan,it's only been in a bear market for 20 years,but maybe Fleckenstein is right,the time may be coming,and the 20year bear in Gold is fading.max also <<Fleck On Tech (Palm) From bigger than a breadbox to smaller, there is the situation with Palm. So much for the conventional wisdom about everybody needing a hand-held. (Remember how eagerly awaited that IPO was?) Technology spawned the Palm, but it couldn't make it profitable. Which brings me to another point. From hand-helds to PCs to routers, we have a saturation problem. There is too much inventory at the end markets. There is too much inventory throughout the semiconductor parts manufacturers as well. Nothing is going to change this for a very long time. So, when you hear companies talk about how things are bottoming and will improve, that is just a hope and a guess. Could it happen? Sure, it's conceivable down the road that it could happen, but it is not a high-probability event in the next six to nine months. People need to understand that what they saw in 1999 and 2000 were false reference points for what the business might look like going forward.
As we get deeper into the upcoming quarter, there will be lots more bad news and negative preannouncements. In the big-company category, the No. 1 candidate to disappoint again will of course be Intel. We won't learn what its business is like until June 7. Assuming that present trends stay in place, my guess is that people will not welcome the news with outstretched arms... end quote from www.grantinvestor.com |
