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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner

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To: Paul A who wrote (9584)	5/19/2001 8:59:15 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 19633

Paul, CCMP at $70 is no more of a joke than AMAT at $55. Not only is CMP growing still, while cap ex is still declining, CMP is used as long as chips are crunched out, and even if the forecast of a decline of 20% in chip shipments this year (the worst I have seen so far, the consensus is around a decline of 16% or so). When looking "over" the valley to 2002 for justifying today's price, analysts have AMAT making $1.17 in 2002 and CCMP $2.40, considering that AMAT has greater and deeper cycles than CCMP, one can make an argument that "if" AMAT today is worth $55, then CCMP may be worth $90. That is actually taking into account discounting CCMP by 20% relative to AMAT, because AMAT is the leader and more diversified, and CCMP is a one pony show (albeit, the leader in that show). Good luck out there. Zeev

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