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Pastimes : Thoroughbred Horse Racing
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (82)5/19/2001 9:50:23 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (1) of 1269
 
KT,

I hate to rain on your parade, but you guys are carrying even more dead weight that you think. I like Congaree too. :-)

Going into the Derby I thought Point Given was the most talented horse. And lot's of Derby flops do bounce back in the Preakness. So I have to give him a big shot. But the way I see it, it's no lock that I was right about him to begin with in terms of him being better than Congaree and/or Monarchos. Now, it's no lock that he will bounce back to top form. So it's tough for me to take him in the Preakness as the favorite.

I rated both Monarchos and Congaree in that evenly matched group just behind Point Given in the Derby. They are one and one against each other and I think the trip had a lot to do with the flip flop.

In the Wood, Congaree stalked a moderate pace, took the lead without too much effort and held off Monarchos.

In the Derby, he was used fairly hard staying with a fast pace that left a lot of other contenders buried. He wasn't right on it, but I suspect he was close enough that it had to have taken something out of him. Monarchos, on the other hand, got a great ride from Chavez in that big field - as a deep closer without any trouble at all.

The Preakness looks a lot more like the Wood Memorial than the Derby. So I am leaning towards Congaree. But if either of the others wins I won't be shocked.

I think a bet on any of the others horses in the field requires a big price.

Just a note: I have hated AP Valentine ever since he lucked into the Champagne last year with an easy trip. I hear that Pimlico is wet. If it stays "very wet", Nick Zito's horse often improve dramatically on wet tracks.

Good Luck!
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