Hi Zeev!! Actually- I think AMAT at $55 is a joke too but :)
I guess its important to point out my feelings on the economy are alot more negative then the average bear. I believe that even your most negative forcast on the semis is far too convservative and I expect CCMP will deliver a shocking reality check next month. Im sure your not 'playing' CCMP based on valuation but rather the volatility and predictable trading patterns :).. or do you have CCMP in the long term portfolio?
This from their last report:
"However, as we indicated on March 12th, the significant inventory build of IC chips over the last several quarters and the weakening demand in most of the end market applications for electronic systems, compounded by the overall economic slowdown, has led to a rapid decline in semiconductor capacity utilization, capital spending and wafer starts, which has appeared most pronounced at semiconductor foundry manufacturers. The rapid and sudden decline in wafer starts of even the leading edge IC products has impacted our business. As a result, second quarter revenue was down 18.8% from our exceptionally strong 2001 first quarter, when we achieved record quarterly revenue of $68.6 million and net income of $14.4 million.
``Furthermore, we are unable to predict when the current industry situation will improve. Thus, it now does not appear likely that we will achieve our previous guidance for fiscal 2001 revenue growth of 50% or more, which was based on the assumptions we made earlier in the year about the rate of the burn off to normal levels of our customers' end market chip inventory and the overall economy. In response to the soft conditions we are experiencing, we have implemented more stringent spending controls and have postponed certain capacity-related capital investments. During this period, we will continue executing our strategies designed to enhance our market and technology leadership position so that we are able to emerge from this industry downturn with an even more compelling customer value proposition.
Zeeve- aside from history, I just dont see any signs of recovery/hope in this sector.. Christ- AMAT, INTC, all these clowns didnt even have the guts like Chambers (cisco) did to come out and say 'hey folks, we simply just do not know when its going to get better'.. INTC and AMAT say 'we think we will see a recovery' or what is the line CNBC keeps using? 'It cant get any worse!'.. I think there is just as valid an arguement that this sector is far from a bottom then not.. THe only thing going the bulls way is history.. THats not good enough for me :)
Incidentally- they are already whoring out DDR ram over at Micron.. THe prices are plunging before it becomes a reality.. our company has grown even more negative in the last 2 weeks and keeping in mind who our customers are, this is not a good sign.. Any relief on the inventory side thus far is NOT evident. (CSCO, SCMR, JNPR) etc etc
sorry to babble.. I must say that IM not a happy camper being on the opposite side of a trade then you.. You too are one of the folks on s/i who have given me so much priceless info over the years which is why im still playing the 'game'.. I hope this time your wrong man :) |
