Max, I agree with you on the overcapacity problem. I believe the VC industry is indirectly responsible for this, taking companies public before they were legitimate. The glut of companies and the money that chased them not only created excess capacity, but killer competition.
In order to meet top-line numbers that justified lofty multiples, companies did whatever they could - give-away leases, financing, buy-backs, cut-rate sales, the whole gamut. That is a recipe for disaster, and we've seen it in several sectors already. The inevitible shakeout will happen, and those that are left will be stronger.
The problem with the Palms is that most people can get by with a basic one. Very few use it beyond its simple calendar and expensing functions. The early adopters that want all the add-on gadgets can't support the industry by themselves. I use a palm occasionally when I don't feel like taking a laptop to a meeting.
Until there is an all-in-1 unit (the Kycotera (Sp?) is the only good example so far, and it is flying off the shelves) people will only use the Palm's basic functions.
Kycotera's is a phone and palm all in a slick package that is reasonably priced and pretty light. Their next generation product will absolutely kill the competition.
Anyone who thought Palm's market cap was justified was just fooling themselves anyway.
As for Gold, I know a guy who was hoarding bars 20-years ago waiting for the collapse of the dollar. He's still sitting on them. He could probably make a nice fireplace mantle with those bricks. |
