Re: Let me walk you through it slowly and then maybe it will make sense.
Hmmmm.
Consider this link:
cluboc.net
Factory spec 1.0 to 1.33GHZ Athlons run at 1.4GHZ to 1.6GHZ with a good fan/heatsink combo.
Meanwhile we're learning that factory spec 1.7GHZ P4s sometimes run at 1.2GHZ under load.
If AMD specified heatsink/cooling systems as large as the ones Intel specifies for P4, and then added throttling to reduce performance under load, thunderbird would bin out at about the same speeds as P4.
Palamino would bin out 20% higher than that.
IPC for thunderbird is higher than P4.
IPC for Palamino is higher than thunderbird (and much higher than P4).
Thunderbird/Palamino is about 2/3s the size of P4 and consequently less than half as expensive to produce (yields go down as size goes up). Usually this isn't a big deal for parts as profitable as CPUs, but as the price war extends to mobile and SHV servers, the fact that AMD' revenue needs are about 1/10 those of Intel's could become significant. That 1/10 revenue need is supporting a marketshare of 1/5 to 1/4.
The architecture for the Athlon core design and the processes for its manufacture were developed while AMD was nearly bankrupt and resource starved.
Now AMD has paid off its debt (except for a small subsidized Dresden loan) and has earned substantial new resources to accelerate design, process, and manufacturing development.
Despite the intensifying price war with Intel AMD still looks to be in excellent shape.
OTOH, we are in the early part of a period in which Intel is attempting to reverse AMD's gains by exhausting what started out 6 months ago as a $13 Billion war chest it accumulated over 20 years. (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) At present rates, we may be as little as 12 months away from AMD's financial position being superior to Intel's, but it's going to be a brutal 12 months, and Intel will likely regain some marketshare as it exhausts its $13 Billion.
Earnings from AMD this year may well disappoint, while the losses from Intel may be downright horrible.
Dan
PS - If the IBM/AMD .13 / copper / SOI process were to pan out as hoped, AMD could dominate the mobile and SHV server markets 18 months from now.
In which case, Intel and VIA can battle it out for the 20% of revenues available to the lower 75% of the market.
e.g. We Will Bury You!
:-) |
