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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 152.39-5.6%3:30 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (9832)5/20/2001 12:39:04 AM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Could the threat of War in the middle East derail the tech stock rally?

We have seen a significant escalation of hostilities in the middle east. Israel, always eager to show off the latest American Military hardware, and its effect on stone throwing Palistinians, has got its political head buried in a sand dune.

All those Arab nations are watching, and planning and plotting their revenge. Right now their only weapon is the flow of oil and world public opinion. The one sided response by Israel (we can kill more of them, than they can of us) is a losing strategy for Israel.

Here is how I see it playing out. The Palistinians keep throwing rocks and Israel kills a few more and makes some more martyrs. At some point the other Arab nations tell the US to rein in Israel or else.

The "or else" is a reduced oil flow to the US. We already have an energy problem. Any dramatic spike in prices from where we are now will cause a market panic. ( and it will not be upward)

But the reverse would also be true. Any reduction in tensions and killing in the Middle East will provide stability to our markets. The markets are jittery without the direct provocation of Israel vs the Arab world.

It seems to me that every time the markets in the US get blind sided by some event, that event was never predicted until it was too late. The Israel... Arab confrontations if allowed to escalate have the full potential to derail our stock market recovery.

I hope that Bush steps in before things get further out of hand.

Jerome

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