MAY 21 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical indicators:
DOW - CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - CLASS 1 SELL
OEX - CLASS 1 SELL
NAZ - CLASS 1 SELL
NDX - CLASS 1 SELL
VIX - CLASS 1 BUY(inverse to market)
5-DAY TRIN - 3.85
Per my short-term technicals the overall market is now a CLASS 1 SELL with the window until tomorrow's highs. If the market doesnt close negative tomorrow, a DOJI/SPINNING TOP would be a hint that a short-term top may have been set. If the market closes again at the intraday highs, that would be a hint of possible significant breakout to the upside immediately and possible NEGATED CLASS 1 SELL signals.
Readings of the 5-DAY TRIN below 4.00 are in sell territory, but readings of less than 4.00 can continue for a few days, nevertheless the 5-DAY TRIN reading of 3.85 is lining up with the CLASS 1 SELL signals. The VIX has a CLASS 1 BUY signal(inverse to market) is also lining up with the CLASS 1 SELL signals on the indices.
As mentioned previously, I have a 34-DAY(trading days) CYCLE TOP arriving WED, based off the APRIL 4 LOWs.
So we have a good line-up for some sort of a pullback; now the question is how strong will the pullback be. The recent action in the major indicies and the market internals are bullish, so Im suspecting that the forthcoming pullback now may not be that strong, say small to normal.
Previously, I had mentioned that the 9-month CYCLE LOW would arrive early JULY, which was incorrect. It should be early OCT. Concerning the 9-month cycle, it is a common understanding that in a bearish market the top of the 9-month CYCLE should be around the 3rd month(early APRIL) and if the market is bullish the top of the cycle to be around the 6th month(early JULY), and I would add that if the market is in a trading range the top should arrive near the middle(4.5th month) around the 3rd week of MAY. So here we are that the 4.5 point of the 9-month cycle. Is the market in a trading range or bullish, where the 9-month cycle top arrives close to early JULY.
GOLD got as high as 298 in the AUSSIE MARKET, and closed around 285 in NY. So I feel that a short-term top in GOLD was set. How much lower will it go - HECK, GOLD already pulled back $13 from the 298 highs, so that may already be the extent of the pullback. Actually, Im hoping that GOLD pulls back near 270 so I can buy back in - not predicting. If it doesnt, OH-WELL, I'll just have to let it run and look for something else.
In my personal mutual fund account, I closed some UOPIX(long-NDX) positions where I now have a very small/even HEDGE position, with over 90% cash again. In my trading account, I still have a position in a biotech and a small-cap and 1 last position in HM, with more than 50% cash. Not yet confident in going strongly short, but may enter a small short trading position tomorrow if I notice weakness. |
