Hi Pinhi: Market View. Been tied up most all day. Not able to watch the market that much and just got in about 10 pm. Sorry not able to reply sooner to your question, and this is a rather quick reply after a brief review of the charts, but I wanted to get it posted, hopefully, before you went to bed out on the east coast.
My view is that there is not a confirmed breakout yet.
1.) Going through 2250 is good. However, it took 4 tries in the past 30 days to do so.
2.) The volume today was good. 2.6 bil. However, we've had other high vol days like that in the last 30 days +/-. April 18, 19, and 20 had vol of 3.1, 2.7, and 2.6 bil. May 2 at 2.6 bil.
3.) I view it positive that we closed above 2250, at 2305, the high for the day.
4.) I mentioned in previous posts, and last night, that I was looking for 2350/2400 area if we did break through 2250. There is a lot of resistance up there, just like there was at 2250. Granted, a number of folks are saying 2500 is where we go next.
5.) Looks like there might be some rotation into the Naz. That's good of course.
6.) I would prefer a "sustained" level of vol, certainly more than one day.
7.) I would prefer we get up into the 2350/2400 area and sustain the vol. In other words, confirm 2250 was taken out and now has become, somewhat, a level of support.
8.) Yes, things are looking much better, but after today, and the fact we've been up for several days, it wouldn't surprise me to be down tomorrow.
9.) So, the answer to your question whether the vol today was convincing enough, the answer is "no."
Again, this is a quick response after a brief look at the stats/charts, but that's my view as of now, Pinhi.
I will remain cautious. The bull in me wants to see this thing run to 2500, and I may get left in the dust if it does, but for some reason, my gut is telling me "patience."
I still like EXTR and BEAS. They are doing what I said months ago, that is, when the Naz does recover, even briefly, they will lead.
Good luck my Friend.
RR |
