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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 343.07

-0.5%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (613)	5/22/2001 10:30:32 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 95761

re Symetry When the stocks started to fall, we complained because they were STILL growing shipments, but the RATE OF CHANGE in the Book2Bill did an inflection and the hot money momentum players left (probably on margin as well...). Well, NOW we have shipments still falling but many conference calls I listened to the CEO's said shipments would be about flat QtoQ... The hot money in this upside down world is the shorts cover.... Then they made mention of near unity Book2Bill in the next few months... as flat orders "catch up to" falling shipments so more start to get in. My KEY this round was to buy when they announced layoffs. That got me Agilent at $30, AMAT at $39 and LRCX in the teens (two buys). I even added some UTEK at $22. My idea was we were at the top when they had so many openings that they were paying $10K to employees to get friends to come work there... and I want to be accumulating my "trading shares" when they are laying off. I say "trading shares" as this is just a 10-20% tweaking to long term core positions as I am mostly long term buy n hold. but 20% risked at the right time can really add to portfolio return...8)

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