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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Andrew H who wrote (1188)	6/12/1997 8:44:00 PM
From: biowa	of 9719

!Kung, A little debate going on over in the MATX thread. Care to join in the discussion: "Is MATX doomed to be a niche player, quickly overcome by the tide of successful oncology biotech products?" Actually, this issue does bring up one question I've been meaning to toss out on this thread. WITH THE RAPID INCREASE IN PDTS IN THE PIPELINES, ARE WE APPROACHING A POINT WHERE NEW CLINICALLY SUCCESSFUL PRODUCTS NEVER EVEN REACH PAYBACK? This possibility has been raised with Viracept and AGPH, that the next better PI or other HIV treatment will eat its mkt share as quickly as it is eating Crixivan's. Many valuation models assume at least 3-4 years of mature profits, is that still a reasonable assumption? A twist on that. If Congress legislates changes at the FDA which drastically shorten trial and approval times, what about the products that suffered through the old process but now will face accelerated competition? With Rman leaving on vacation and thus depriving us of thoughts on lactation and genital warts, I just thought I'd toss this out. biowa

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