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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: KyrosL who wrote (77330)5/22/2001 9:10:06 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Semi equipment orders were 74% down from last year. How can anybody in his right mind value an industry whose orders can go that much down from year to year at anything other than rock bottom P/Es? This is a lot worse than the automobile industry for crying out loud.

I am sure we are going to see both sides of this debate tomorrow.
Would not suprise me to see weakness tomorrow. If today was an up day, it would have been a certainty.
The semis may not do so well but other sectors such as the PCs will do fine, IMHO. Lower prices for components to go into the PC.

However, I don't believe this news will sink the semiconductor stock that much..may just prevent upward moves or cause slight losses (a few percentage points at worst)....which will probably just be temporary. Too many analysts and investors are still looking beyond the valley.

If this can be span positively tomorrow, we will know that the mania has been revived.

Manias happen in both directions. In up markets as well as down. I felt we were in the midst of a shorting mania earlier this year (including increasing popularity of hedge/short funds as well as mutual funds that hedged).
That is the only way to explain the explosive rebound in the Nasdaq.
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