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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: TREND1 who wrote (16368)	5/22/2001 9:55:07 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 30051

Larry: Re: "The stock market is looking at the BTB 6 to 9 months from now. THINK !!!" Yes, I did think back to the spring/summer of 1998 when the talk was the same and those prices were cut as the stocks did not find an ultimate bottom until the Autumn exactly when the fundamentals did and not six to nine months before. So I expect we revisit at least the lows in these stocks again absent a miraculous pick up in demand and capacity utilization. Issue is not whether we are at a bottom (how could this get much worse) but HOW LONG will we spend around that level and how much DAMAGE will be done to the balance sheets in the process. Also, the valuation metrics when compared to the bottom of 1998 do not compare to where the stocks are trading currently. Stocks have already discounted leg one plus of an upcycle which is merely a speculative promise at least six months out. A high risk bet IMO at these prices.

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