Engineer's points are valid,
especially that these Wi LAN systems will end up being more expensive than just the upfront hardware/installation costs. But I don't think the point of 802.11 networks at starbuck's and at say, Delta Admiral's club, would be to generate revenue on a subscriber basis. Once these Wi LANs exist, they would probably serve as free, fast access points to the public internet (but certainly not corporate LANS), and be value-added services that drive traffic to those particular destinations. I see enough people bringing their laptops to starbucks; imagine if they also had free, fast internet connections available. Whether the additional customers offset the low (but not free) cost of maintaining the Wi LAN and paying for broadband ISP remains to be seen. But it couldn't cost more than $1000/mo... airports spend that on taking out their trash alone (another non-revenue generating activity, in and of itself <g>). I know that I certainly would be more likely to fly Delta if i knew that I'd have free internet access at my stop-overs. Of course, it's no longer a compelling reason to choose Delta if i already have HDR on my phone with an unlimited service plan. Cellular data access will certainly be more flexible than Wi LAN (mobile vs. portable), but it will also certainly be more expensive. For some, Wi LAN access in some locations will be good enough. Those people, who might have otherwise elected to purchase a CDMA2000 phone, represent lost royalties for QCOM. One could make the analogy that there would be more cellphone users today if there were no pay phones in public places. Now imagine if there were *free* pay phones; how many fewer cell phones would there be?
I don't think that PCStel is suggesting that the proliferation of Wi LANs will destroy the raisen d'tre for 3G; I do think it will have some affect on its market penetration, and unfortunately for carriers, a diminishing effect on 3G usage as well (irrelevant of course to QCOM). |
