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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who started this subject5/23/2001 8:58:11 AM
From: At_The_Ask  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
HMMMMMM?
Message 15839624

Whereas inflation contributed to the economic (and market) downturn of
1981-82, "there is no chance -- zero -- of any significant inflation popping back
up" today, Hays argued. "Inflation will peak in the next three months and
come plunging back down again in the next 12 to 24 months because of [the
deflationary forces of] globalization and the technology revolution."

(While I have been harping on the inflation theme lately (and believe the threat
real), it would be disingenuous (and boring) to not share the views of someone
whose work and experience I respect just because it differs from my own.
Hays' short-term market calls haven't always worked, but his macro calls have
been impressive.)

As for apparent inflation indicators, Hays called them "decoys." He believes
long-dated Treasuries will reverse their recent swoon and yield less than 4%
within the next two years (notably, last year he predicted they would approach
4% by October 2001). Lumber prices are too volatile for the recent spike to be
taken too seriously, the strategist said, adding that while gold might rally to
as high as $330 an ounce, that would still be "just a blip" on its long-term
chart.
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