Maybe Russ, but things are different now, IMO. If you look at the Semi cycle B-B low in 98, it was at a time when there was a huge surge for computers and chips due to the dot.com and online craze.
Before that in previous semi cycle lows, there was a demand for computers as people scrambled to get one, it was just the new thing.
I just heard last week, US households actually had a decline in numbers of households online.
IMO, the internet is getting kind of old, the hype is over. Some people are getting tired of the net, it needs improved.
So, what will drive the semi cycle higher this time??
IMO, this time, it's different. I don't see the drive. I don't see the demand. I don't see it until the masses can all get broadband, and currently only 3% of US households have broadband connections.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it all go flat for a while.
When, the masses can get broadband, and when we can get audio and video over the net with quality, that's when I see the next surge in semis, and a new bull market.
Just my opinion. |
