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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Richard M. Smith who wrote (1313)6/12/1997 10:15:00 PM
From: David R. Lehenky   of 10309
 
I don't recall anyone suggesting that there would be any significant
I2O for 1997. The guesses have ranged from $0.04 to $0.07 a share for
WIND, with virtually all of this in the last quarter. It should ramp
up nicely in 1998, starting early in the year. Again, the initial
market will be servers, as far as shipping products. I know HP has
already said they will build I2O into their desktops, and Intel will
be putting I2O into all PentiumPro/PentiumII motherboards by year-
end, but the major shipments will start out as server boxes. If the
i960 volume Intel is projecting holds up, then WIND *should* see
something like $0.30 to $0.35 a share from I2O run-time royalties for
1998. I think 1999 will see I2O in most PCs, but that's just my take
on it. NetPCs and bottom-of-the-line PCs may be left out. The momentum
is clearly building, and the need is obvious. Raising CPU speeds is
just not the whole answer to server throughput and effective multi-
media. PCs are I/O-bound and I2O is an elegant and cost-efficient
solution. In addition, it dramatically reduces the costs of
developing and maintaining peripheral device drivers, because they
are no longer OS specific (including OS version levels). I think the
Win98 OSM will become available as soon as I2O desktop PCs are
ready to ship. Remember that MSFT is working toward a unified driver
model for all Windows platforms; the OSM for NT 5.0 and Win98 may
well be one in the same, or pretty damn close.

-Dave Lehenky
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