From another poster --> NASDAQ Scenario Update -->
Summary: We were looking for the rest of 4(down) today and probably the start of 5 (up). For tomorrow, we still favour the 5 coming.
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Well, down, down down she went today. Recall that May 23 is an important turn date, so the odds still favour that today was the finish of the 4 we
were looking for, although it really dragged out (more on that later). The turn date is +/- 1 day, so of course it could have been yesterday (a top) or
tomorrow (early low?).
So, the depth of this putative 4 is right on the edge. Simply put, this has to run almost from the start tomorrow. If could survive an early 20 point drop
(gap, whatever), but not much more than that or I'll be getting my intermediate-term bear cap on.
In the smaller timeframes, and even in some cases on the dailies (like NYA), we had some technical failure today. These may be a headfake, but they
raise a serious flag for those looking to buy into the coming 5 scenario. I am on high alert here and will not be buying this market unless some of those
failure are reversed.
Non-tech looks just awful. It stopped counting up nicely a couple of days ago and fell apart today.
As we were saying, if this is a 4 then it is right on the edge. COMPX, which I use for NASDAQ counting, is not far from violating the top of our
putative 1 at 2216 and that's a no-no. The 38.2% retrace for this impulsive move (what we have been tracking as such since last Wednesday) is at
COMPX 2224. That's also the bottom of a falling wedge that has formed since yesterday. For me, it has to turn there or else and that's only about 20
points from this close.
Gamblers will step up to the plate, but I think the smarter play is to wait this out for a little while because you only stand to lose a small portion of a big
move either way.
Cheers |
