The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (1184)	5/24/2001 12:09:13 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) of 10065

NABE Outlook Panel: Aggressive Fed Limits Slowdown "While the business outlook remains cloudy and profits are under severe pressure, NABE panelists have remained steadfast in their belief that a recession is unlikely," noted Richard B. Berner, NABE President and Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. "Panelists believe that an aggressive Fed will sustain modest economic growth for the balance of the year and into 2002." Survey Summary NABE panelists left their 2.0 percent 2001 growth forecast for real GDP intact, but the mix for 2001 is more downbeat than in the February survey. Panelists lowered their sights on 2002 real GDP growth to 3.1 percent from 3.5 percent. The panel believes that a recession has a 35 percent chance in 2001 and a 25 percent likelihood in 2002. Despite downward revisions in forecasts for many of the cyclically sensitive sectors of the economy, those odds are only modestly higher than three months ago. Higher energy costs boosted forecast inflation (in terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)) in 2001, on a year/year basis, to 3.0 percent from 2.6 percent. The panel expects CPI inflation to fall to 2.5 percent in 2002, both year/year and Q4/Q4. Courtesy of an aggressive Fed, the NABE panel now expects substantially lower short-term interest rates in 2001 and 2002. By and large, panelists believe that the Fed has conducted monetary policy "just right" over both the recent past and throughout the current expansion. NABE panelists attribute the economic slowdown largely to a "classic inventory correction" and the impact of last year's Fed tightening. They view the sharp drop in the stock market as an additional important factor, but one that is behind us now with prospects for "moderate gains" going forward.

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