RE: " Now Cary is fighting the tape."
First of all, I am insulted that you think a simple minded cliche is sufficient to characterize my behavior.
Second, you are wrong. As of today, my brokerage accounts hold 57.4% stock, mostly semi-equips and CSCO, and 42.6% cash. I have been selling into strength, taking 50%+ profits on recent purchases. The 1/2 AMAT and KLAC I sold for $55 and $48, had a cost of $7.31 and $9.91, respectively. I will sell 1/2 of my ASML at ~$32. It is ~28% of my stock position and I have an average cost of $1.24. I have stated that I will maintain, at least, a 50% stock position, and I will.
I am hedging my position and I have taken some flack for that from the bears. I realize that I may be wrong, BUT.
I have probably read close to 100 earnings reports from tech companies, with special attention to their forecasts. I have read analysts reports and quotes from industry leaders. In all of these cases, these common themes stand out:
1. Tech business has declined faster than anyone has ever seen;
2. Tech business will continue to decline next quarter, but the forecast is a slower rate of decline;
3. There is no real visibility beyond next quarter;
4. There are no obvious drivers for the next recovery;
5. The fed will prevent things from getting much worse;
6. Things are so bad they must get better soon.
In 2000, when my porfolio was 6 times the value it reached at the bottom of '98, I was already 40% cash. Why?
Because I could not believe the abject stupidity and corruption that was running rampant in the stock market. I won big last year because I knew what the numbers were and I had the discipline to stick to my plan. I knew that prices, including semi-equips, were ridiculous. I did not read any posts here that indicated that anyone else was concerned.
Now, I hear the so called "experts" on the semi-equip cycle. Most have decided that the cycle may be sufficiently analyzed by looking at price movements and btb data since '95. It is irrelevant to these "experts" that semi-equips have not had even one normal cycle since '95. '97 was an artificial blip caused by SE Asian idiocy and '99-'00 was interrupted by the bursting bubble. No matter, prices moved up and down, and so did btb.
As I said, I might be wrong. If I am, I will only participate with 50% stock. If I am wrong, the most likely reason will be that investors hold the prices up as long as it takes for tech business to get better.
If I am right, Alan Greenspan will not be the only one soiling his pants over what happens. |
