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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 256.41+1.1%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: trilobyte who wrote (47244)5/24/2001 8:12:10 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
>>Good grief, and that is why Taiwan and Korea now have
world leading semi industries. I'm sure many countries
wished they had been a little more reckless at the time
and followed the lead of these countries... I thought that
the Korea fiasco of 98 was due to currency speculation.<<

Hmmm.... you might want to study it a little more closely. Why was the currency vulnerable in the first place?

The IMF bailout of Korea was used, in large part, to restructure bank debt. The bank debt problem existed in the first place because companies had debt-to-equity ratios in the 50-100:1 range (or maybe even higher than that). Where'd the debt come from? Fab construction was a big chunk, justified in part by assuming that DRAM would cost $50/MB forever, or at least for long enough to pay off the loans.

Though Korea's semiconductor industry emerged from that disaster, it is by no means the towering giant that it was in 1997. Similarly, it's not at all clear that the Taiwanese foundries will look as strong after 2001 as they did at the end of 1999.

Katherine
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