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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 256.41+1.1%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (47240)5/24/2001 9:21:39 PM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
In 2000, when my portfolio was 6 times the value it reached at the bottom of '98, I was already 40% cash. Why? Because I could not believe the abject stupidity and corruption that was running rampant in the stock market. I won big last year because I knew what the numbers were and I had the discipline to stick to my plan. I knew that prices, including semi-equips, were ridiculous. I did not read any posts here that indicated that anyone else was concerned.

In 2001, subsequent to establishing such a large cash position (and subsequent to a 50%+ fall in the NASDAQ), I began to re-enter tech stocks. Why? Because I could not believe the abject stupidity and distortion that was running rampant in the stock market. The current pervasive negative sentiment is an equal match for the pathetic, mindless enthusiasm of a year ago. I won big last year because I knew what the numbers were and I had the discipline to stick to my plan. I knew that prices, including semi-equips, were ridiculous. I will win this year because I will not fall victim to negativism any more than I resisted the unanimously sunny outlooks of last year. I know the cyclicity in this industry and I know strong up cycles follow precipitous declines as night follows day. I will have the discipline to invest now based on my familiarity with this compelling industry pattern. I am currently not reading a large number of posts here that indicate the investing public is confident in such a rebound and this is consistent with a cyclical bottom as well.
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