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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 259.21-4.0%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47199)5/25/2001 12:40:58 AM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
******Why the bulls have it all wrong for now*****

1) Where are all the orders? About a year ago it seemed that every week or so one of these companies would make an announcement about a big order win. Something like "KLIC Gets Order for another l50 Bonders".
Have you noticed lately that there has been a scarcity of order announcements?

2) What are we seeing for announcements? Things like NVLS wins INTC's coveted supplier award. ASYT wins award for best landscaping in the area. AMAT cafeteria wins visiting sales rep awards. LRCX wins best landscaped parking lot award. Now these are nice things, but they do nothing for the bottom line.

3) In January all "The Experts" were saying things would pick up in the second half of the year. Hey folks July is 35 days away. Do things look any better now than they did in January? About the same or even a little poorer depending which company you are talking about.

4) The theory that things have to get better because they can't get any worse is indeed a strange one. Would a second round of layoffs by these semi firms convince anyone that things are getting worse? Next Thursday NVLS has its mid-quarter update. AMAT's conference call should have made a lot of savy investors nervous. If NVLS reports next Thursday that there is no change in the dismal outlook, or if they guide to lower estimates I will figure out some kind of hedge for my semi-holdings.

5) The idea that new technology must be adopted or you will perish is simply absurd. Old technology can last a long , long, time if the cost benefit ration favors the old stuff. That's why battleships and airplanes last past 30 years. No matter how modern the plane or the technology the flight time from New York To Chicago is the same that it was 20 years ago.(and the in flight food has gone down hill....peanuts anyone?)

6)If the turnaround was here then we would be hearing of order announcements or contract wins as of now. But its been strangely silent. What are you Bulls hearing that makes you so optimistic?

For now ( at least until Sept. or Oct.) pay attention to the bears of the thread. I hate to see the optimists of the thread get mauled without warning.

Regards, Jerome
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