Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 104.71

+0.6%

Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: richard surckla who wrote (73547)	5/25/2001 1:12:06 AM
From: NightOwl	Read Replies (1) of 93625

rsurckla, ex post lex loci Yahoo facto: In the beginning of 2001 Samsung - RDRAM manufacturer #1 - produced 5 million of «equivalent 128Mbit» chips a month, but in March (with Intel’s assistance) it increased the volumes to 10 million. In June the company plans to double the output once again to make it 20 million chips a month (that will account for 30% of Samsung’s total production). Since February Toshiba manufactured 2 million of RDRAM chips a month, and by September it wishes to bring it up to 8 million a month (or to 60% of its total output). The third RDRAM manufacturers, Elpida Memory, is now releasing feeble 200,000 chips a month. In the second semester of 2001 it plans to reach the bar of 5 million chips a month (30% of the company’s output). The Taiwanese Winbond has scheduled to launch with Toshiba’s help a trial party of RDRAM, but the starting date of mass production and the expected ultimate output are not announced yet. So lets see, I guess this means in December alone all DRDRAM licencees will produce something north of 33 million 128MB equivalent units. Then too INTC is hoping to sell 20 million P4's for the entire year and warning that the number will be closer to 10 million, but what the heck, lets give them 10.5 P4's for the year. Looks like even if you assume that 10 million of those P4's go out the door with 256MB of memory on average, you still have @13 million 128MB equivalent units to sop up for the month of December alone. I guess the "good news" is the price of a RIMM is going to get real cheap come the 2nd Half, not to mention the severe Ankle Attacks that this will cause The Legend to endure from the Mom & Pops.<vbg> But then the bad news is that the old royalty rate is going to takee a major hittee of its own as soon as Samsung gets that production volume over 20%. ...Maybe we should get those slackers at Elpida off the pot? <vbg> 0\|0

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