Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (104943)	5/25/2001 5:25:04 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (7) of 436258

i'm aware he isn't worried NOW...at least that's what he's saying. as for the expectations for the second half, i'm going to fade them, because that's the CONSENSUS, just as the consensus was that the market would keep rising last summer, and that it would turn around after the presidential election, or that the rate cuts would turn it around (the first three rate cuts were followed by the worst part of the sell-off). what i'm saying is, the market itself will disprove these expectations, by going down. when the BoJ began cutting rates after the Japanese bubble burst, the market did exactly the same thing...first kept going down, then recovered, then plunged again...deflationary supercycle bears are like that. you wouldn't believe how impressive the rallies were from '29 to '32...based on exactly the same expectations. the bullish consensus per the polls has now reached the levels of January 2000...and the positioning measures are likewise closing in on extremes. based on that i would guess perhaps one more push up before we slide back for a re-test of the lows.

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