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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.93

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: t2 who wrote (77478)	5/27/2001 2:00:12 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Actually, I think that Tuesday morning might open higher, but later I believe that it will come down again. I am not comfortable with a number of "things" in this market. Not only are the current reading of P/C ration, vxn, VXI and QQV in the wrong place for a major rally, the bottom we had in late March and early April lacked the characteristic of capitulation. The "general investor", this that did not concentrate in high techs but had balanced portofolio, and I would presume that is the majority of most 401 k accounts, have not sufferred a bear marke of any "traditional" proportion. That would have been fine if traditional measures of values have been corrected, but despite the major hair cut in the Naz, generally (even the S&P) valuations in view of rising long term rates are high. Bear markets end up with "uncommion" values, only few sectors have gone to that extreme. One of the reasons that I expect in 2002 (after a major bull move starting within the next few months) a really painful bear which will touch most LTB&H. Zeev

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