To:ajtj99 who wrote (16660)
From: Zeev Hed Saturday, May 26, 2001 2:01 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 16718
I let the turnips do the thinking. Right now, there is not much conviction either way. The bias is however negative (and thus I am quite heavy in cash). The main scenario of a low in August in the 1600' is still in play, only a strong (volume wise) break above 2388, will change that. Any close under 2250 (only a point away, and possibly happening Tuesday after the morning "mark up") will precipitate a test of the 2095, and a failure of 2057 will open the way for much more rapid decline. I don't expect the initial stage to be that rapid, I still see "meandering first between 2100 and 2250 (quite tradeable on a daily basis) which should be interpreted by the market as consolidation, while, I believe, in fact will be distribution, then, the decline will accelerate. My current target is a decline to the 1850 by late June, a rally back up to mid July (rally to about 2080 or so), and then from mid to late July, the decline taking on more ominous proportions with a possible retest of the early April lows in Late July or possibly early August.
Zeev |
