Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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From: Big Bucks	5/29/2001 8:42:50 PM
	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Hello old friends...I haven't posted here in quite some time and thought that I'd check out how the board is doing. I've been out of AMAT for over a year now and took a small PUT position on it recently. If this cycle trends like past AMAT cycles, it is apparent to me that the bottom in semi equips has still not been reached. One of the key catalysts, that has not occurred, that fortells a bottom in semi-equips is when AMAT announces manufacturing layoffs and significant personnel cut backs. So far there have been only incentive based elective layoffs, that I've heard of, but then again I admit that I haven't tracked the stock very closely. It also seems natural that there is still much more chip production capacity than demand, as witnessed by the foundry business slowing down. Europe is slowing, the Pacific Rim is stagnant with little prospect for short/mid term growth and US fabs are cutting back and closing. In short (no pun intended), the demand for semi-equips is still drying up, IMO, so fabs will curtail any significant equipment purchases to conserve capital and try to maintain profitability by pinching penneys. Equipment orders are being cancelled or delayed until better market conditions prevail. IMO, there is more downside potential vs short/mid term upside potential. History is repeating itself. Regards to all, BB

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