Hi Peter:
Couple of things. First got stopped out of GBU today at 4.20, + 62% since Apr 2. It acted just like GSC and zoomed down a lot and right back up. Now it may break through that resistance you told me about at 4.60 if POG bounces off support. I might play it with a buy stop for a breakout. Now just having replaced GSC with BGO, I need to replace IMG and GBU as well. It's that and go back to 11 or drop two and go to 7 positions. You know how I like those prime numbers. I think the risk reward in a bounce in POG is better than betting on anymore rise in the techs or even the Dow. I've caught up reading this thread and followed your thoughts on RIMM tonight and with Shack calling for at least a short term top, along with the charts we are at a major point of divergence. Of course Shack could be wrong and me too and the major indices will breakout and POG will tank. Also, everything could go down together which is why discipline and never hold after 20% down from peak and get returns of 62%.
Secondly, I've gotta keep reminding you young pups to get a life perspective. Well, at least when reading charts, don't forget they have past lives, not just today or last six months or year. RIMM ADX indicator on 3 year looks a lot different. This is more clarification for Cush and Shaw rather than you Peter, cause I know you've got this down pat. Whichever indicator is on top indicates the trend. From November 98 to Dec 00 the +DI was on top and the trend was up and if you draw a trendline joining the two bottoms of Nov 98 and May 00, you'll see it's not violated if extended until Jan 01. The +DI turned down in Feb 00 before the ADX turned down showing the end of the trend. If you stayed out or went short there until the +DI turned up again in June you would have been in great shape. The jump back up to 200 shows the +DI again on top but the ADX never gets as high again. The indicator has been showing a non-trending market since the beginning of the year, even though the price has jumped up, down and then up again, but the major trend is down as indicated by the -DI being on top. If your predictions come true, we will see something we have not before seen in this chart, and that is a rising ADX line with -DI on top. That -DI looks like it's about to shoot skyward so the shorts should win the next round.
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyymy[df][pb50!b200!c4!c9!c18][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Ll14!Lc20]
Hope this hasn't confused people more.
Regards
Bob |
