I agree with everything, except the duration of the long 4. If it is indeed a 4, it should be of similar order to the 2, which only lasted a handful of hours. While it certainly could last for days, I think that more than one or two days would be stretching it.
I agree that we need to be on alert here for the potential that this latest five waves down, when complete, is just wrapping up a zig-zag. We should be able to tell by the character of the rally. However, I must admit that I'm clinging to my Naz=1931 (as in the YEAR 1931) scenario, under which we have already launched yet another leg to new lows.
I was disappointed with the volume behind today's move, which has me suspicious. While first legs down frequently occur due more to a buyer's strike than any real selling, such light volume has to be considered troubling in a 3 of 3. However, of very important note: the roll off the January high launched on a similar drop in volume. As it later turned out, it was 3 of 1 (second trading day of Feb.) on light volume, but it did significant technical damage. So I'm not putting too much importance on this.
SPX H&S failure measured move targets 1245, another couple percent. Smelly has been counting very nicely of late, and was probably the easiest index on which to read the latest turn. Now we've got (on the 15 min.) 5 waves down (for wave 1), 3 up (for wave 2), and we're probably *still* in wave 3 down, without a clear corrective wave 4. That should launch early tomorrow. As it was pointed out earlier, this impulsive down points toward 600, if 1=3 (or A=C under the bullish count).
For those interested:
LLTC just suffered a crushing TL failure, and now looks to have a breakout failure as well. Would have been nice if I'd noticed Friday, but I can't seem to keep up with them all. Still concerned about low volume; might short a decent pop in them however. MXIM is a similar setup.
NETE = tech-trash. Failed TL breakout attempt.
SCON - what can I say? Consummate imagination stock, one of my all-time recurring theme favorite shorts.
IBM may be due to reverse, as what looks like a completed flat may produce a failure of the supposed H&S bottom there. This may be a double-flat pattern in progress. (weeklies)
LRCX is falling out of a nice, sloppy bear flag, obviously not wave 3 quality. MU is even farther along here in giving up a similar flag.
MRVL - could be a nice setup, although it lacks much TA setup. There is nothing but air - technically and fundamentally - holding up that piece of paper.
MVSN has fallen back through its declining TL, sealing a failed breakout attempt.
SUNW - nice breakout failure.
RFMD - boy, nothin' but air underneath that one if it goes. Topped where it did back last summer. I think it's due for a little bounce; might be a decent R/R if you got a good entry.
ONIS just can't seem to get over its TL hurdle.
INFY had trendline trouble.
SANM is falling on unusually high volume. I doubt that it is still falling on the recent downgrade. Suspicious - warning forthcoming?
SCH - watch that $19 shelf there. If it goes...
RBAK - ouch, looks like it's in 5 of 3 now. (weeklies)
BBY is of particular interest to me here. Don't see how a retailer can fetch 30 times an optimistic earnings forecast in a recession. The zig-zag doesn't count very well, but the obvious counter-trend dip has been followed by another, much weaker, leg up, and with Old Eco rolling, I'm inclined to pick on this one.
BC |
