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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 96.90

+0.9%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alex who wrote (70714)	5/30/2001 10:44:50 AM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (2) of 116762

Alex, Try Alice in Dairyland. The situation in the mining industry reminds me of dairy farming here in Wisconsin. In the early '70's government regulations forced many farmers to buy bulk tanks, build new milkhouses, and in some cases drill new wells. This was very expensive at a time when inflation rates and interest rates were beginning a long uptrend. Farmers picked up more cows to produce more milk in order to improve cash flow. Milk prices fell. Farmers raised more milk cows and increased herd numbers. Milk fell to all-time lows. Farmers went bankrupt. Then milk became volatile. In the last 10 or 15 years there have been several cycles where milk prices went from bottom barrel to near record levels. When it happens, prices do almost all of their movement up or down in at most a month or two. I suspect gold will do the same with at least a full double from bottom to top, just like milk. And it may have several legs to it before it's over--the last leg being an investor induced spike up unrelated to supply/demand fundamentals. Got gold? Got milk?

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