andreas:
"I don't buy it. AMD has be in a superior situation over Intel for almost two years. But what have they accomplished so far?"
Beg to differ...AMD has accomplished "win" products across the low, middle and top end of the consumer market against a monopolistic competitor 30 times its size, and AMD has accomplished this with only one hand, in the face of a competitor who used both hands and both feet as weapons in its attempt to beat back the scrappy AMD...In this environment, AMD has delivered outstanding eps compared to its competitor...One month ago, AMD launched its Athlon 4 and on Monday will launch its initial server offering thus increasing the opportunity for new or incremental growth potential...That is AMD will now have both hands and one foot with which to compete...In September, with a workstation offering, two hands and two feet...That the handicapped AMD fared so well with only one hand over the past 2 years is a testimony to their leading edge technology...Nothing so far other than the sometime-in-the-future-if-ever continuing stream of P4 hype we have heard now for about 2 years running has threatened AMD's rate of market share growth in the consumer space...AMD is small enough and the comparative"win" features of its evolving PC's strong enough to ensure above average growth over the next 5 years...With all the weapons (bundled goods???) and financial resources available to INTC, it has been unable to derail AMD's phenomenal performance of the past 2 years and in fact has seemed to bungle many launches of its own over this period...
Need to cut AMD some slack on their corporate goals...Paul seems to have everyone's feathers fluffed because AMD didn't sell 5 million Athlon 4's upon launch, when in fact, they're probably selling as many as they can produce, and maybe even as many in the month of availability as p4's in their 2 years of availability (or so it seems when I think about the P4 hype)...Paul seems to be fluffiing everyone's feathers because AMD apparently won't sell 5 million servers on Monday...The Pauls of the world are master deceptors who have an uncanny ability of masking the most important, by a long shot, element in any product launch, that being the comparative features...The Pauls of the world do this by setting up unrealistic day 1 shipment targets (how has P4 done anyway since its launch...still diving for that threshold price last I saw) thus diverting attention away from the significant price/performance advantages afforded by AMD's new products...
Concerning eps, hard call for Y2001, but i'd guess AMD's eps'll be at least 3 times that of INTC's whose shares are currently trading almost at parity with AMD's...As for future comparative revenue growth potential, it wouldn't be too surprising if AMD's is also about 3 times that of INTC's...Within such a context, it can be argued that AMD's price should be at least 3 times that of INTC, which if realistic, implies tremendous upside potential for AMD...
Most importantly, recent comparative favourable AMD trends have not waned and in fact would seem to be improving even more as evidenced by the "clean kill" Ahlon 4 features (about which we undoubtedly will hear much more in the upcoming week) and as, I believe, will be evidenced by comparative features of the new server entry on Monday...
No time to get negative on AMD now...AMD is on the launch pad of its next growth phase...AMD's "corporate offerings" will not be ignored for any great length of time owing to the competitive advantages that will derive from the palomino core, imo... |
