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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Shack who wrote (3716)5/31/2001 10:47:47 AM
From: Henry J Costanzo  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
Good morning...

1. You're right - my scenario assumes bear market ended with a major A-B-C Wave IV on Apr 4. That's per my long-term "analysis" (my post# 2683 of May 16). So, I would think we're now in Wave V leading to new highs - but a fifth wave can be sluggish and take a long time. Considering that IV lasted more than a year, that could mean a new high over the next 18 mos-2 years.

2. But I don't think that's the only possible count - an alternative could label the April low as a major A, and we are now in a major B, which could retrace 50-62% of the Mar2000-Apr2001 decline. If I'm not mistaken, a B wave can take the form of a 5-3-5, so that would not be inconsistent with my counting 5 waves up from Apr4 to Apr20.

3. Thanks for posting your chart - believe I can now follow your thinking better than before.

4. Should clarify that I am a swing-position trader, with an outlook of days and weeks, and no day-trading. Right now my general posture is to "buy the dips", since any way you slice it, I think we have a ways up yet to go.
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