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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Lucretius who wrote (105735)	5/31/2001 12:47:01 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Barton Biggs speaks...... no belief in V bottom: Global Strategy: Inflation Fake-Out Barton Biggs I don't believe in the reflation trade. The move in gold is a fake-out, not a breakout. The consensus now is convinced that the Fed has saved the American economy and the world as well. The consensus believes the consumer will keep spending, that there will be a V-shaped recovery, and that stock markets bottomed in March. The consensus now worries about Fire rather than Ice and cites gold. By contrast, I think it really is different this time, and that the U.S. economy will have to deal with a recession, disinflation, and a slow recovery because IT capital spending will be sluggish for years and because the over-leveraged and under-saved consumer will fade. The bear market is incomplete, in my view, and I would use strength to get underweight equities. Government bonds, high-grade corporates, and the defensive equity sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals, look attractive. I don't think the bull market in energy is over. The financial sector is my biggest underweight on the theory that now is the time when the sick chickens come home to roost.

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