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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market
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To: John Pitera who wrote (21)5/31/2001 12:53:13 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (2) of 1643
 
Agreed. Commodities usually do poorly in the first few years following a burst of a bubble due to economic weakness and a steep fall-off in demand. Usually this weakness causes panic dumping into already depressed prices, which puts in a lasting bottom. They say bear markets usually end with a bang, not a whimper. The other alternative I suppose is a move up off a very long basing pattern.

It pays to start doing your research now however, so you are prepared to capitalize when the opportunities present themselves. One way to look at it is, you could have been a couple years early buying stocks in 1980 but you would have made out quite well despite that. You also could have bought the top in 1987 instead of waiting for better prices and still made out well a decade later. If you're an investor you will make out just fine if you start buying now and you're a little early. If you're a speculator like me, you want to try to time these things for their big moves. Before I am comfortable jumping on these things I need to learn more about them.

Either way I think we have plenty of time because prices are going to move steadily higher for years. The fastest money will be made toward the end of the boom when everyone finally sees it our way and decides to jump on board. That is when you will have a blow-off top and it will be time to get out. I will be much more comfortable knowing that I did the homework and learned about these things before it was hip for others to just jump on the latest bandwagon and buy the latest thing. That will give me a better sense of when it's time to get out when everyone else is furiously jumping in!
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