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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: John Pitera who wrote (105777)	5/31/2001 1:20:57 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) of 436258

seems incongruous to me in a couple of regards ... OK he buys that deflation is the greater risk, but what will policy makers do? They recognize this already -- when will the Fed "see" the turnaround? One possible view is that they "see" it already and are just holding carrots out to support the confidence needed to make it to the other side -- somehow I doubt this is how they are thinking. Also, if rapid deflation is what's really coming -- the energy bull is necessarily limited ... there is also a demand side -- the consumer piece may be inelastic, but the industrial / commercial piece is not. Finally, if the US is not the engine of world growth it is purported to be, why should the hot money not look elsewhere ... at some point when there is recognition that we don't have a V-recovery ... Very possible he is correct about gold, but I'm not sure that re-flation has to "work" for gold to be a winner

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