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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 52.51+2.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (3945)5/31/2001 5:31:10 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
IJ,

I'm betting that there is a (substantial) corner of the market that is price sensitive. That might change if Medicare starts prescription coverage though.

I haven't seen the script numbers recently. What period were you looking at?

From their last quarter PR:

Niaspan prescriptions continued to show strong growth, increasing 36 percent from the comparable quarter a year ago, nearly twice the rate of growth of the cholesterol market.

...

Kos continues to expect revenue to increase 40-45 percent for the year 2001 compared with 2000, with the growth concentrated in the second half of the year, consistent with normal seasonal patterns for prescriptions and wholesale purchases.

A combo with a "real" statin would be dynamite for the company. It would require new trials, and I've no idea if the existing agreement with du Pont would preclude such a deal.

Sure doctors could prescribe a combo now. However there is concern with pill count and simplicity. Further, KOSP just don't have the marketing strength to push this by themselves.

Incidentally, in a couple of years SEPR will have a sizeable but somewhat under-utilized primary-care sales force (just two or three products at the beginning). Wouldn't surprise me to see them co-promote a product like this. (But one in a related allergy/asthma field would of course be better).

Peter
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