Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (4050)	5/31/2001 11:33:31 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<<I do not see an economic collapse either, just a financially unhealthy event .......>> Himm.........Well ya seem to be coming a wee bit closer to "repenting" yourself ... Sorry I just couldn't help me self ..... ;^) Look Jay, my position is that we already had somewhat of a collapse in equities. This in response to the current recession [ downturn, whatever ] In the postwar era we have had numerous recessions with the expected decline in equities.It would seem to me that if one expected a severe decline in equities from the lows one would also be forced to believe that the underlining economic condition would have to decline proportionately....... Now the NAZ is down top to bottom some 70%. If it goes another 20% down [now 90% overall ] thus we have a collapse....No? I guess the difference between us is: I think the collapse is over and you think that it still has a little bit more to run. About that dollar und said predictions.About six months ago I saw talking head after talking head on CNBC agreeing that it was a given [ not their words but their attitude ] that the dollar was going down. I have always believed that value is exactly equal to price. Predictions have no real standing.In the here and now the dollar is strong.And as such cheap imports are keeping competitors honest. <<Oil going up in price would be a one time event. >> A sustained oil spike would be like a large value added tax added on top of the current tax structure with the government spending the money over seas. One time maybe but could take a long time to recover from. I blame the years of stagflation on oil price rises. I also think much of the current economic problems are a result of higher oil <<Do not live in the past.>> But history is sucha great teacher........But you knew I would say that.....

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