Pigboy and Thread,
Can I offer an unsolicited and humble opinion on what could take place, at least in the PC marketplace?
Microsoft is going to release their new OS in October. Starting sometime in the next three-four months, individuals and companies will begin to defer PC purchases figuring why buy now and upgrade later, when I can buy a machine factory loaded with W-XP in October. In August/September, box makers, retailers and distributors will cut inventories, boxes loaded with the old OS will be difficult to sell after XP's release, nobody will want to have that inventory. With a WAG of three to six weeks lead time on microprocessors, I would guess that Intel's business will hit a slump in and after July. That's the bad news.
The good news is that with the introduction of XP, the sales channels will have to replenish their inventories. With a lead time of three to six weeks for bringing in microprocessors before the boxes ship, that should give Intel a spike in business starting in early September.
Many analyst believe we will start to see a PC replacement cycle beginning in the 4th quarter, from the PC's bought pre-Y2K, that will become fully depreciated. At that time Intel should have 2+ GHz on .13, that will make the 300-600 MHz machines bought in 1999 seem very slow.
So my very humble guess is that Intel's business will suffer through most of the second and third quarter. There should be a lot of doomsayers right through the summer, but Intel should give a very positive 3rd quarter report (because of September sales) and guidance in October. I have no idea if or when the stock will start to go up in anticipation of a good IAG 4th quarter and 2002. And if the communications division doesn't start to recover, it could be that increased sales in microprocessors just offset the losses on the other side.
All speculation and guesses. Feel free to bookmark and let me know how wrong I was.
John |
