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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: isopatch who wrote (8381)6/1/2001 2:07:42 PM
From: eichler  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Iso,
Many have been making a big deal about not fighting the fed.
While I myself am not ignoring this economic stimulus, I do recall reading not that long ago that every time the fed has lowered 4 consecutive times, the market has turned up...
WITH THE EXCEPTION of the 1929 market crash which lasted a few years. Even then there were significant bear market rallies followed by further tanking. It could be that the fed may be trying in vain to bail out a sinking ship with a bucket or water glass. I thought they were very badly mistaken by raising rates when they thought the economy was overheating. I'm not so sure they anticipated the resulting trillions which went to money heaven. True, the market itself had way overheated and created a huge speculative bubble.
Maybe nothing they could have done would have prevented the ensuing downtrend. Could be now that nothing they can do will prevent the slow but sure complete deflating of that bubble. Last time I checked, PE's are still overinflated compared with historical norms. I'm certainly not sounding the panic alarm,
but trying to remain objective and consider the various possibilities. Certainly, I have seen and profited from extraordinary moves up in this bear...but then again it pays to be cautious and willing to step aside when things don't quite feel right.
Best regards,
Eichler
BTW, the weekly $compx chart sure looks overbought and indicators turning back downwards to me. Time will tell, as they say.
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